Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Which Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026? — John Ratcliffe (CIA Director)" has a consensus probability of 29.4%. Manifold: 24.5%, Gemini: 33.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.