Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Which Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026? — Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)" has a consensus probability of 54.5%. Manifold: 51.0%, Gemini: 58.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.