Across 1 prediction market platform, "Which Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026? — Pete Hegseth (Secretary of Defense)" has a consensus probability of 85.0%. Manifold: 85.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.