Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Which Trump Cabinet members will remain in place by the end of 2026? — Scott Bessent (Secretary of Treasury)" has a consensus probability of 12.5%. Manifold: 14.6%, Gemini: 12.5%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.