Across 1 prediction market platform, "Who will be elected mayor of Los Angeles in 2026? — Asaad Alnajjar" has a consensus probability of 0.2%. Manifold: 0.1%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.