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Who will be the 2026 Republican nominee for Governor of Florida? — James Fishback

11.7%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
2 platforms · 4pp spread · $6K

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Who will be the 2026 Republican nominee for Governor of Florida? — James Fishback" has a consensus probability of 11.7%. Manifold: 9.1%, Gemini: 13.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Manifold
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9%
16 traders
Gemini
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13%
$6K
Probability Over Time
All 4 Consensus Models
Market Details
Manifold
Updated 3h ago
Volume
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Aug 2026
Gemini
Updated 3h ago
Volume
$6K
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Aug 2026

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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