Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Who will be the 2026 Republican nominee for Governor of Florida? — Jay Collins" has a consensus probability of 5.3%. Manifold: 1.5%, Predictit: 4.0%, Gemini: 9.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.