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Who will be the 2026 Republican nominee for Governor of Florida? — Jay Collins

5.3%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
3 platforms · 8pp spread · $6K

Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Who will be the 2026 Republican nominee for Governor of Florida? — Jay Collins" has a consensus probability of 5.3%. Manifold: 1.5%, Predictit: 4.0%, Gemini: 9.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Manifold
View →
1%
16 traders
Predictit
View →
4%
Gemini
View →
9%
$6K
Probability Over Time
All 4 Consensus Models
Market Details
Manifold
Updated 3h ago
Volume
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Aug 2026
Predictit
Updated 25d ago
Volume
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Gemini
Updated 3h ago
Volume
$6K
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Aug 2026

About This Consensus

Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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