Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Who will be the next UK Prime Minister after Keir Starmer? — Andy Burnham" has a consensus probability of 4.6%. Manifold: 5.4%, Predictit: 4.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.