Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Who will be the Republican nominee for president in 2028? — Donald Trump, Sr" has a consensus probability of 3.1%. Manifold: 2.2%, Gemini: 5.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.