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Who will win the 2028 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary? — Marco Rubio

17.6%
Consensus Probability (Model B — Geometric Mean of Odds)
1 platforms · 0pp spread

Across 1 prediction market platform, "Who will win the 2028 New Hampshire Republican presidential primary? — Marco Rubio" has a consensus probability of 17.6%. Manifold: 17.5%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Manifold
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18%
14 traders
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Manifold
Updated 2h ago
Volume
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Sep 2028

About This Consensus

Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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