Across 4 prediction market platforms, "Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?" has a consensus probability of 7.8%. Manifold: 5.5%, Predictit: 9.0%, Polymarket: 5.3%, Gemini: 11.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 4 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.