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Will Amy Klobuchar win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Democratic primary election?

95.6%
Consensus Probability (Model B — Geometric Mean of Odds)
3 platforms · 5pp spread · $15K

Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will Amy Klobuchar win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Democratic primary election?" has a consensus probability of 95.6%. Manifold: 96.6%, Polymarket: 92.0%, Predictit: 97.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Manifold
View →
97%
11 traders
Polymarket
View →
92%
$15K
Predictit
View →
97%
Probability Over Time
All 6 Consensus Models
Market Details
Manifold
Updated 5h ago
Volume
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Aug 2026
Polymarket
Updated 1h ago
Volume
$15K
Liquidity
$12K
Bid / Ask
91.0% / 93.0%
Spread
2.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Aug 2026
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Minnesota, scheduled to take place on August 11, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Minnesota …
Predictit
Updated 21d ago
Volume
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves

About This Consensus

Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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