Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will Casey DeSantis be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?" has a consensus probability of 1.0%. Polymarket: 0.4%, Manifold: 1.6%, Gemini: 2.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.