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Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?

50.0%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
2 platforms · 0pp spread · $12K

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2026?" has a consensus probability of 50.0%. Manifold: 50.0%, Polymarket: 52.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Manifold
View →
50%
19 traders
Polymarket
View →
52%
$12K
Probability Over Time
All 4 Consensus Models
Market Details
Manifold
Updated 3h ago
Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
—
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jan 2027
Polymarket
Updated 27d ago
Volume
$12K
Liquidity
$6K
Bid / Ask
51.0% / 53.0%
Spread
2.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
If U.S. President Donald Trump visits a listed country between January 1 and December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET, the relevant market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering t…

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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