Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" has a consensus probability of 1.9%. Manifold: 2.1%, Polymarket: 1.8%, Predictit: 4.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.