Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?" has a consensus probability of 48.7%. Polymarket: 38.5%, Manifold: 59.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.