Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?" has a consensus probability of 74.6%. Manifold: 73.0%, Predictit: 79.0%, Polymarket: 69.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.