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Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

27.4%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
2 platforms · 0pp spread · $700K

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?" has a consensus probability of 27.4%. Polymarket: 13.4%, Manifold: 27.4%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
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13%
$700K
Manifold
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27%
22 traders
Probability Over Time
All 4 Consensus Models
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 16d ago
Volume
$700K
Liquidity
$32K
Bid / Ask
13.3% / 13.4%
Spread
0.1%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this mark…
Manifold
Updated 1h ago
Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
—
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jan 2027

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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