Home › Politics › Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime M...

Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

20.4%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
2 platforms · 3pp spread · $534K

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?" has a consensus probability of 20.4%. Polymarket: 19.7%, Manifold: 22.9%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
View →
20%
$534K
Manifold
View →
23%
22 traders
Probability Over Time
All 4 Consensus Models
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 3h ago
Volume
$534K
Liquidity
$48K
Bid / Ask
18.3% / 21.0%
Spread
2.7%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Dec 2026
Legislative elections are schedule to be held in Israel on October 27, 2026. This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Israel following the 2026 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this mark…
Manifold
Updated 3h ago
Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
—
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jan 2027

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

Odds Raven

The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.

Product
HomeConsensus 2+Multi-OutcomeChangelog
Learn
AboutInsightsMethodologyFAQAPI
Legal
PrivacyTermsContact
© 2026 Odds Raven · Data refreshed every 6 hours · peer-reviewed methodology