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Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?

65.5%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
1 platforms · 0pp spread · $629K

Across 1 prediction market platform, "Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?" has a consensus probability of 65.5%. Polymarket: 65.5%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
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66%
$629K
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 26d ago
Volume
$629K
Liquidity
$40K
Bid / Ask
65.0% / 66.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jul 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public before Grand Theft Auto VI is officially released in the US. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If neither occurs by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve t…

About This Consensus

Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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