Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Will John Hickenlooper be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Colorado?" has a consensus probability of 74.9%. Polymarket: 79.0%, Manifold: 70.4%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.