Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will Kathy Hochul win the 2026 New York Democratic Gubernatorial Primary?" has a consensus probability of 97.4%. Polymarket: 97.2%, Manifold: 98.3%, Predictit: 98.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.