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Will Lisa Murkowski win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

0.4%
Consensus Probability (Model B — Geometric Mean of Odds)
1 platforms · 0pp spread · $13K

Across 1 prediction market platform, "Will Lisa Murkowski win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" has a consensus probability of 0.4%. Polymarket: 0.4%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
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0%
$13K
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 5h ago
Volume
$13K
Liquidity
$10K
Bid / Ask
0.3% / 0.4%
Spread
0.1%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Nov 2026
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for th…

About This Consensus

Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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