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Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?

63.0%
Consensus Probability (Model B — Geometric Mean of Odds)
1 platforms · 0pp spread · $149K

Across 1 prediction market platform, "Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?" has a consensus probability of 63.0%. Polymarket: 63.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
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63%
$149K
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 2h ago
Volume
$149K
Liquidity
$29K
Bid / Ask
62.0% / 64.0%
Spread
2.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Nov 2026
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The res…

About This Consensus

Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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