HomePolitics › Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Color...

Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?

84.0%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
3 platforms · 0pp spread · $28K

Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will Michael Bennet win the 2026 Colorado Governor Democratic primary election?" has a consensus probability of 84.0%. Predictit: 79.0%, Manifold: 84.0%, Polymarket: 71.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Predictit
View →
79%
Manifold
View →
84%
6 traders
Polymarket
View →
71%
$28K
Probability Over Time
All 4 Consensus Models
Market Details
Predictit
Updated 19m ago
Volume
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Jun 2026
Resolves
Manifold
Updated 29m ago
Volume
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Oct 2026
Polymarket
Updated 27d ago
Volume
$28K
Liquidity
$5K
Bid / Ask
69.0% / 73.0%
Spread
4.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Jun 2026
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Colorado, scheduled to take place on June 30, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Colorado Gube…

About This Consensus

Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

Odds Raven

The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.

© 2026 Odds Raven · Data refreshed every 6 hours · peer-reviewed methodology