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Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

11.7%
Consensus Probability (Model B — Geometric Mean of Odds)
1 platforms · 0pp spread · $108K

Across 1 prediction market platform, "Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election?" has a consensus probability of 11.7%. Polymarket: 11.7%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
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12%
$108K
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 34m ago
Volume
$108K
Liquidity
$14K
Bid / Ask
10.6% / 12.8%
Spread
2.2%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Nov 2026
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for th…

About This Consensus

Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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