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Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

1.1%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
1 platforms · 0pp spread · $17.0M

Across 1 prediction market platform, "Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?" has a consensus probability of 1.1%. Polymarket: 1.1%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
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1%
$17.0M
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 3h ago
Volume
$17.0M
Liquidity
$900K
Bid / Ask
1.1% / 1.2%
Spread
0.1%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
Nov 2028
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.…

About This Consensus

Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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