Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will the Democrats win the New Mexico Senate race in 2026?" has a consensus probability of 96.4%. Manifold: 95.2%, Polymarket: 95.3%, Predictit: 98.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.