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Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?

56.0%
Consensus Probability (Model B — Geometric Mean of Odds)
1 platforms · 0pp spread · $38K

Across 1 prediction market platform, "Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?" has a consensus probability of 56.0%. Polymarket: 56.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
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56%
$38K
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 2h ago
Volume
$38K
Liquidity
$43K
Bid / Ask
55.0% / 57.0%
Spread
2.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
—
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Ohio gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., G…

About This Consensus

Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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