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Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?

94.9%
Consensus Probability (Model B — Geometric Mean of Odds)
2 platforms · 2pp spread · $40K

Across 2 prediction market platforms, "Will the Democrats win the Rhode Island governor race in 2026?" has a consensus probability of 94.9%. Polymarket: 93.5%, Predictit: 96.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
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94%
$40K
Predictit
View →
96%
Probability Over Time
All 6 Consensus Models
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 28m ago
Volume
$40K
Liquidity
$20K
Bid / Ask
93.0% / 94.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Rhode Island gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee …
Predictit
Updated 21d ago
Volume
Liquidity
Bid / Ask
— / —
Spread
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves

About This Consensus

Computed from 2 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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