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Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?

24.0%
Consensus Probability (Model B — Geometric Mean of Odds)
1 platforms · 0pp spread · $7K

Across 1 prediction market platform, "Will the Democrats win the Vermont governor race in 2026?" has a consensus probability of 24.0%. Polymarket: 24.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
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24%
$7K
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 3h ago
Volume
$7K
Liquidity
$11K
Bid / Ask
23.0% / 25.0%
Spread
2.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
—
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g.…

About This Consensus

Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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