Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will the Republican Party hold exactly 54 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?" has a consensus probability of 3.3%. Manifold: 7.8%, Polymarket: 1.5%, Predictit: 3.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.