Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026?" has a consensus probability of 94.4%. Polymarket: 93.5%, Predictit: 95.0%, Manifold: 94.5%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.