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Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

57.0%

Consensus Probability (Model B — Geometric Mean of Odds)

1 platforms · 0pp spread · $93K

Across 1 prediction market platform, "Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?" has a consensus probability of 57.0%. Polymarket: 57.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus

Polymarket
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57%

$93K

Probability Over Time

Market Details

Polymarket

Updated 38m ago

Volume

$93K

Liquidity

$40K

Bid / Ask

56.0% / 58.0%

Spread

2.0%

Opened

Apr 2026

Resolves

—

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democra…

About This Consensus

Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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