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Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

54.5%
Consensus Probability (Model A — Inverse-Variance Log-Odds)
1 platforms · 0pp spread · $111K

Across 1 prediction market platform, "Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?" has a consensus probability of 54.5%. Polymarket: 54.5%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.

Platform Comparison — white line = consensus
Polymarket
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55%
$111K
Probability Over Time
Market Details
Polymarket
Updated 26d ago
Volume
$111K
Liquidity
$17K
Bid / Ask
54.0% / 55.0%
Spread
1.0%
Opened
Apr 2026
Resolves
—
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democra…

About This Consensus

Computed from 1 platform using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →

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