Across 3 prediction market platforms, "Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?" has a consensus probability of 22.1%. Polymarket: 23.5%, Manifold: 17.4%, Gemini: 26.0%. Consensus via geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014), validated by IARPA ACE tournament.
Computed from 3 platforms using geometric mean of odds (Satopaa et al., 2014). This method was validated by the IARPA ACE forecasting tournament as the most accurate probability aggregation technique. Full methodology →
The only prediction market aggregator with academically validated cross-platform consensus.