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Cross-platform prediction market consensus. Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,266
Markets
Polymarket
Manifold
PredictIt
Gemini
Data refreshed 1 hr ago
836 questions
ShowAllSingle MarketsMulti-Outcome✓ Consensus 2+
SortTrendingMost SourcesBiggest GapHighest ProbNewest
PlatformAll PlatformsGeminiManifold MarketsPolymarketPredictIt
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$29.4M3pp gap
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$19.3M3pp gap
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$18.1M3pp gap
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$15.7M3pp gap
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$13.6M3pp gap
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$13.5M3pp gap
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$13.0M3pp gap
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$13.0M3pp gap
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
3%
— 0pp
Polymarket
2%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
3%
sports3 sources$12.6M2pp gap
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$12.1M3pp gap
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
— 0pp
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$11.9M2pp gap
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
4%
Polymarket
3%
Gemini
5%
Manifold
4%
sports3 sources$11.7M2pp gap
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
42%
— 0pp
Manifold
44%
Polymarket
39%
politics2 sources$11.7M5pp gap
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Polymarket
0%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$11.4M3pp gap
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2%
Polymarket
2%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$11.2M3pp gap
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
17%
— 0pp
Polymarket
15%
Gemini
18%
Manifold
17%
sports3 sources$10.9M3pp gap
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$10.8M3pp gap
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
1%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
3%
Manifold
0%
sports3 sources$10.4M3pp gap
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2%
Polymarket
1%
Gemini
4%
Manifold
1%
sports3 sources$9.9M3pp gap
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
29%
↓ 2pp
Polymarket
28%
Gemini
31%
Manifold
27%
politics3 sources$9.9M4pp gap
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