By when will the Covid lab leak market resolve? — By end of 2050
36%
Manifold
36%
scienceManifold17 traders
By when will the Covid lab leak market resolve? — By end of 2028
6%
Manifold
6%
scienceManifold17 traders
D
Doctor malpractice for not using LLMs by 2028?
8%
Manifold
8%
otherManifold14 traders
W
Will Apollo Research (new AI evals org) shut down before 2028?
24%
Manifold
24%
otherManifold14 traders
W
Will Roblox go bankrupt before 2030?
22%
Manifold
22%
otherManifold15 traders
W
Will there be a massive global financial crisis, larger than any before seen in human history, before the end of 2028?
6%
Manifold
6%
otherManifold16 traders
W
Will the US have a President not nominated by either Republican or Democratic party by 2050?
16%
Manifold
16%
politicsManifold14 traders
W
Will Xi Jinping's succession be a nonviolent transition of power by my judgement?
85%
Manifold
85%
otherManifold14 traders
U
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? — March 31
1%
Manifold
1%
otherManifold12 traders
U
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? — April 30
94%
Manifold
94%
otherManifold12 traders
U
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? — May 31
95%
Manifold
95%
otherManifold12 traders
W
Will Xi Jinping still be the leader of China by 2030?
58%
Manifold
58%
otherManifold16 traders
W
Will Democrats win any of Alaska, Iowa, or Ohio in the Senate races this year?
69%
Manifold
69%
politicsManifold15 traders
W
Will Dune: Part Three make over 650 million dollars at the global box office?
76%
Manifold
76%
entertainmentManifold16 traders
B
Bitcoin $50K before $90K?
44%
Manifold
44%
cryptoManifold16 traders
W
Will Brent crude close above 100/barrel at the end of the following months? — October 2026
32%
Manifold
32%
otherManifold16 traders
W
Will Brent crude close above 100/barrel at the end of the following months? — November 2026
28%
Manifold
28%
otherManifold16 traders
W
Will Brent crude close above 100/barrel at the end of the following months? — December 2026
28%
Manifold
28%
otherManifold16 traders
W
Will the German federal government survive its full 4-year term?
42%
Manifold
42%
otherManifold12 traders
W
Will Trump be impeached before Jan 20th 2029
66%
Manifold
66%
politicsManifold16 traders