W
Will there be a functional ≥100MW data center in space before 2031?
33%
Manifold
33%
otherManifold22 traders
W
Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?
75%
Manifold
75%
politicsManifold22 traders
W
Will China have a female leader before 2060?
20%
Manifold
20%
otherManifold22 traders
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028? — X = 40
97%
Manifold
97%
otherManifold22 traders
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028? — X = 50
98%
Manifold
98%
otherManifold22 traders
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028? — X = 75
98%
Manifold
98%
otherManifold22 traders
AI resolves at least X% on SWE-bench WITH assistance, by 2028? — X = 80
98%
Manifold
98%
otherManifold22 traders
W
Will world real GDP jump by 20% in a year over any previous year in before 2040?
36%
Manifold
36%
economicsManifold22 traders
W
Will JD Vance resign as US Vice President during Trump's second term?
12%
Manifold
12%
politicsManifold22 traders
W
Will Anthropic release Claude 5 Opus (or equivalent next-gen flagship) before October 1, 2026?
91%
Manifold
91%
aiManifold22 traders
W
Will Enho be on the banzuke in Juryo for the May 2026 Grand Sumo Tournament (Natsu basho)
99%
Manifold
99%
otherManifold22 traders
By when will the Covid lab leak market resolve? — By end of 2028
6%
Manifold
6%
scienceManifold17 traders
D
Doctor malpractice for not using LLMs by 2028?
8%
Manifold
8%
otherManifold14 traders
W
Will Apollo Research (new AI evals org) shut down before 2028?
24%
Manifold
24%
otherManifold14 traders
W
Will there be a massive global financial crisis, larger than any before seen in human history, before the end of 2028?
6%
Manifold
6%
otherManifold16 traders
W
Will Roblox go bankrupt before 2030?
22%
Manifold
22%
otherManifold15 traders
W
Will Iranian-backed sleeper cell activity result in US casualties before 2029?
26%
Manifold
26%
otherManifold22 traders
W
Will Saudi Arabia acquire nuclear weapons before 2032?
26%
Manifold
26%
geopoliticsManifold22 traders
W
Will SpaceX's Artemis refuelling launches have a 100% landing success rate?
61%
Manifold
61%
scienceManifold22 traders
W
Will an AI solve a Millennium problem by EOY 2027?
20%
Manifold
20%
otherManifold22 traders