W
Will 100 People Bet On This Market?
40%
Manifold
40%
otherManifold13 traders
W
will Anthropic have another leak in April 2026?
46%
Manifold
46%
aiManifold13 traders
W
Will a non-American go to the moon by 2030?
57%
Manifold
57%
otherManifold16 traders
S
Sora app reaches 50 billion daily views by end of 2026?
8%
Manifold
8%
otherManifold15 traders
W
Will a Sora-generated video receive over 1 billion total views across social media before July 2026?
10%
Manifold
10%
otherManifold16 traders
W
Will there be a mandatory military draft in the USA by the end of 2030?
16%
Manifold
16%
geopoliticsManifold12 traders
W
Will Israel be a democracy in 2030?
87%
Manifold
87%
otherManifold16 traders
W
Will Franky build Pluton during the Elbaf/Elbaph arc (One Piece)
4%
Manifold
4%
otherManifold16 traders
When will we first see a Raptor V3 (or other**) engine fly on a Starship? — Before June 2026
85%
Manifold
85%
otherManifold16 traders
H
How many points will the winner of the chess 2026 candidates tournament receive? — 8
1%
Manifold
1%
otherManifold19 traders
W
Will the federal budget AND deficit AND national debt be higher when Trump ceases being president?
80%
Manifold
80%
politicsManifold16 traders
R
Richard Yang sells out to computer science at MIT by end of April 2026?
40%
Manifold
40%
otherManifold21 traders
B
By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason? — Jan 1, 2027
39%
Manifold
39%
aiManifold16 traders
B
By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason? — Jan 1, 2028
57%
Manifold
57%
aiManifold16 traders
B
By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason? — Jan 1, 2029
66%
Manifold
66%
aiManifold16 traders
W
When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? — June 2026 or earlier
5%
Manifold
5%
aiManifold16 traders
W
When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? — January 2027 or earlier
9%
Manifold
9%
aiManifold16 traders
W
When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? — June 2027 or earlier
30%
Manifold
30%
aiManifold16 traders
W
When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? — January 2028 or earlier
44%
Manifold
44%
aiManifold16 traders
W
When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? — June 2028 or earlier
56%
Manifold
56%
aiManifold16 traders