W
Will Anthropic release Claude Sonnet 5 and Claude Opus 5 on the same day?
21%
Manifold
21%
aiManifold23 traders
T
Thomas Massie wins Kentucky's 4th Republican primary in 2026?
68%
Manifold
68%
politicsManifold23 traders
W
Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2039?
92%
Manifold
92%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will TSLA outperform the S&P 500 in 2026?
31%
Manifold
31%
financeManifold24 traders
W
Will the first human landing on Mars take place before the next human landing on the Moon?
5%
Manifold
5%
scienceManifold24 traders
I
Is Satoshi Nakamoto alive?
48%
Manifold
48%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will Claude Code support AGENTS.md in 2026?
66%
Manifold
66%
aiManifold23 traders
W
What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026? — 30-40%
17%
Manifold
17%
otherManifold22 traders
W
Will Bethesda publicly release The Elder Scrolls VI before 2027?
5%
Manifold
5%
otherManifold58 traders
W
Will chess be solved by 2040?
9%
Manifold
9%
otherManifold243 traders
W
Will 15 or more starship and super-heavy launches be required for Artemis 3?
7%
Manifold
7%
otherManifold22 traders
G
GTA 6 released before August 1, 2026?
1%
Manifold
1%
entertainmentManifold23 traders
W
Will I make USACO Camp 2026?
93%
Manifold
93%
otherManifold19 traders
W
Will AI wipe out humanity by the year 2080
12%
Manifold
12%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will Arsenal finish 2nd place in the 2025–2026 season?
12%
Manifold
12%
otherManifold23 traders
W
Will Trump die of cancer?
11%
Manifold
11%
politicsManifold21 traders
R
Richard Yang sells out to computer science at MIT by end of April 2026?
40%
Manifold
40%
otherManifold21 traders
W
Will Anthropic surpass OpenAI valuation in 2026?
55%
Manifold
55%
aiManifold182 traders
2
2030: Will the World War III be named to start in 2023?
7%
Manifold
7%
geopoliticsManifold24 traders
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by Jun 2029?
27%
Manifold
27%
cryptoManifold25 traders