W
What will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026? — 70-80%
5%
Manifold
5%
otherManifold22 traders
W
Will Bethesda publicly release The Elder Scrolls VI before 2027?
5%
Manifold
5%
otherManifold58 traders
W
Will chess be solved by 2040?
9%
Manifold
9%
otherManifold243 traders
W
Will Trump die of cancer?
11%
Manifold
11%
politicsManifold21 traders
R
Richard Yang sells out to computer science at MIT by end of April 2026?
40%
Manifold
40%
otherManifold21 traders
W
Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2040?
93%
Manifold
93%
otherManifold21 traders
H
How many points will the winner of the chess 2026 candidates tournament receive? — >=9.5
89%
Manifold
89%
otherManifold19 traders
H
How many points will the winner of the chess 2026 candidates tournament receive? — 8
1%
Manifold
1%
otherManifold19 traders
H
How many points will the winner of the chess 2026 candidates tournament receive? — <=7.5
0%
Manifold
0%
otherManifold19 traders
T
Tangible evidence of senior Trump officials trading on insider tariff info before 2030?
72%
Manifold
72%
politicsManifold20 traders
W
Will Bitcoin Outperform Altcoins in 2026?
60%
Manifold
60%
cryptoManifold21 traders
W
Will Anthropic surpass OpenAI valuation in 2026?
55%
Manifold
55%
aiManifold182 traders
Fed rate hike in 2026?
24%
Manifold
24%
economicsManifold21 traders
W
Will the USA dissolve by 2034?
5%
Manifold
5%
otherManifold21 traders
W
Will there be a new(ly) major war involving a nuclear power before the end of 2026?
38%
Manifold
38%
geopoliticsManifold20 traders
I
Iran leadership change by...? — April 30
13%
Manifold
13%
otherManifold21 traders
I
Iran leadership change by...? — May 31
21%
Manifold
21%
otherManifold21 traders
I
Iran leadership change by...? — August 31
37%
Manifold
37%
otherManifold21 traders
I
Iran leadership change by...? — Oct 31
46%
Manifold
46%
otherManifold21 traders
I
Iran leadership change by...? — April 15
5%
Manifold
5%
otherManifold21 traders