W
Will a member of Congress or a federal judge be arrested and held without bail?
38%
Manifold
38%
politicsManifold21 traders
W
Will any of the following Western countries' legislatures be majority controlled by explicitly fascist or communist political parties before 2030?
24%
Manifold
24%
otherManifold21 traders
W
Will WW3 begin before 2040?
37%
Manifold
37%
otherManifold21 traders
W
Will the UK introduce mandatory conscription for any portion of its population before 2030?
16%
Manifold
16%
otherManifold21 traders
W
Will President Trump be declared incapacitated under the 25th Amendment Section 4 during the 2025-2029 term?
10%
Manifold
10%
politicsManifold77 traders
W
Will Elon Musk ever walk on Mars?
12%
Manifold
12%
otherManifold148 traders
W
Will Joe Biden (born 20 November 1942) outlive Vladimir Putin (born 7 October 1952)?
20%
Manifold
20%
politicsManifold148 traders
When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine? — Before 2027-01-01
23%
Manifold
23%
geopoliticsManifold172 traders
When will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine? — Before 2027-07-01
53%
Manifold
53%
geopoliticsManifold172 traders
W
Will Vladimir Putin ever visit Europe?
33%
Manifold
33%
otherManifold16 traders
W
Will Elon Musk travel to space by 2035?
61%
Manifold
61%
otherManifold16 traders
W
Will Trump take credit for reversing TikTok ban?
88%
Manifold
88%
politicsManifold16 traders
W
Will the WWE have their first openly transgender active wrestler by the end of 2026?
7%
Manifold
7%
otherManifold16 traders
W
Will US inflation be 3% or more in 2026?
62%
Manifold
62%
sportsManifold119 traders
B
By when will Wikipedia remove Gaza from "list of genocides"? — Before 2035
20%
Manifold
20%
otherManifold16 traders
W
Will the Ukraine-Russia war cause a nuclear disaster before 2028?
17%
Manifold
17%
geopoliticsManifold16 traders
N
Nothing Ever Happens 2026
39%
Manifold
39%
otherManifold16 traders
A
Are pigs sentient? [Resolves to superintelligence]
89%
Manifold
89%
aiManifold16 traders
W
Will the White House host a UFC event by the end of 2026?
81%
Manifold
81%
sportsManifold16 traders
W
Will AOC run for senate in 2028?
52%
Manifold
52%
politicsManifold16 traders