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Cross-platform prediction market consensus.

Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,934
Markets
Data refreshed 1 hr ago
5,131 questions
Consensus 2+
W
Will Trump resign prior to the end of his term?
4%
Manifold
4%
politicsManifold20 traders
W
Will any single terrorist attack in a Western nation kill more than 20,000 people before 2030?
8%
Manifold
8%
otherManifold20 traders
S
Sum (Int( trillion dollar)) market cap companies — >24.5 at end of 2026/04
13%
Manifold
13%
financeManifold41 traders
W
Will Poland become a National Superpower by the year 2040?
20%
Manifold
20%
otherManifold15 traders
W
Will Taylor Swift get married before Grand Theft Auto 6 releases?
86%
Manifold
86%
otherManifold19 traders
W
Will the Democratic Party win a majority in the Senate in the 2026 mid-term election
46%
Manifold
46%
politicsManifold24 traders
W
Will Pritzker, Newsome, or any other state governor attempt to have the state police arrest ICE agents by July 2026?
18%
Manifold
18%
politicsManifold24 traders
I
Is Robin Hanson's "Grabby Aliens" model basically correct?
40%
Manifold
40%
otherManifold24 traders
W
Will Bitcoin be above $75,000 on April 18, 2026?
46%
Manifold
46%
cryptoManifold17 traders
B
By when will New Glenn flight 3 launch? — 2026-06-30
95%
Manifold
95%
otherManifold23 traders
B
By when will New Glenn flight 3 launch? — 2026-12-31
99%
Manifold
99%
otherManifold23 traders
B
By when will New Glenn flight 3 launch? — 2026-04-30
69%
Manifold
69%
otherManifold23 traders
W
Will "Project Hail Mary" receive more Oscar nominations than "Dune: Part Three"?
31%
Manifold
31%
politicsManifold11 traders
I
If Musk registers a new party before the 2026 midterms, what % of House votes will it win? — 0.5-1%
10%
Manifold
10%
politicsManifold15 traders
I
Is Mike Tyson's boxing career officially over?
20%
Manifold
20%
otherManifold20 traders
W
Will India be renamed to Bharat before 2027?
7%
Manifold
7%
otherManifold21 traders
W
Will Czechia adopt the euro before 2030?
23%
Manifold
23%
otherManifold23 traders
A
Another Donald Trump assassination attempt disclosed?
55%
Manifold
55%
politicsManifold21 traders
W
will world war 3 start before GTA Vi?
20%
Manifold
20%
geopoliticsManifold15 traders
W
Will the president during the 2024-2028 term be impeached by at least one body of congress during his term?
66%
Manifold
66%
politicsManifold23 traders
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