W
Will bitcoin's price go below $40,000 at any point during 2026?
27%
Manifold
27%
cryptoManifold23 traders
W
Will a theory of everything be found this century?
46%
Manifold
46%
otherManifold23 traders
W
Will Google stick to the same red lines as Anthropic for the US military by EOY 2026?
54%
Manifold
54%
aiManifold18 traders
W
Will I improve significantly next year?
30%
Manifold
30%
otherManifold19 traders
When will Starship first attempt propellant transfer from one ship to another in orbit? — Before 2026-06-01
1%
Manifold
1%
otherManifold56 traders
W
Will less than 30% of US adults be obese by EOY 2030?
28%
Manifold
28%
otherManifold19 traders
W
Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be found to have committed fraud before 2030?
6%
Manifold
6%
otherManifold137 traders
W
Will Kanye release a new album in 2026?
81%
Manifold
81%
entertainmentManifold18 traders
W
Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2026?
88%
Manifold
88%
politicsManifold54 traders
W
Will CSK win IPL 2026
8%
Manifold
8%
otherManifold11 traders
W
Will Mexico still host all of the planned FIFA World Cup games this year?
88%
Manifold
88%
sportsManifold54 traders
W
Within the next 5 years, there will be meaningful number of people (>10,000) who treat an LLM as a religious authority figure.
80%
Manifold
80%
aiManifold159 traders
W
Will Mr Beast have a video with 1 billion views by the end of 2026?
22%
Manifold
22%
otherManifold23 traders
W
Will Ukraine lose more territory in 2026 than it did in 2025?
34%
Manifold
34%
geopoliticsManifold16 traders
A
Anthropic 2025 Revenue — $4-5 billion
40%
Manifold
40%
aiManifold18 traders
W
Will Benjamin Netanyahu cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the end of 2026?
46%
Manifold
46%
politicsManifold17 traders
W
Will Trump Trumpet?
13%
Manifold
13%
politicsManifold16 traders
W
Will the next president be a republican?
40%
Manifold
40%
politicsManifold21 traders
W
Will Apple stock (AAPL) hit $500 before $50?
81%
Manifold
81%
financeManifold21 traders
W
Will Christopher Luxon lead the NZ National Party to the next election (probably 2026)?
75%
Manifold
75%
politicsManifold22 traders