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OddsRaven

Cross-platform prediction market consensus.

Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,934
Markets
Data refreshed 2 hr ago
357 questions
Consensus 2+
W
When will OpenAI's first consumer hardware device be released? (Jony Ive Sam Altman IO) 🤖📱👀 — Before July 2026
8%
Manifold
8%
aiManifold19 traders
W
When will OpenAI's first consumer hardware device be released? (Jony Ive Sam Altman IO) 🤖📱👀 — Before December 31st 2026
24%
Manifold
24%
aiManifold19 traders
G
Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date — Before December 2026
67%
Manifold
67%
aiManifold26 traders
G
Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date — Before 2027
79%
Manifold
79%
aiManifold26 traders
G
Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date — Before February 2027
82%
Manifold
82%
aiManifold26 traders
G
Gemini 4.0 (Google) release date — Before March 2027
86%
Manifold
86%
aiManifold26 traders
W
Will Elon win his case against OpenAI?
57%
Manifold
57%
aiManifold17 traders
S
Superintelligence Stock [Permanent]
58%
Manifold
58%
aiManifold18 traders
W
Will Anthropic release a first-party image generation model in 2026?
40%
Manifold
40%
aiManifold75 traders
W
Will a large language model beat a super grandmaster playing chess by EOY 2028?
60%
Manifold
60%
aiManifold85 traders
W
Will Anthropic’s private valuation exceed 50% of OpenAI’s in their next funding rounds?
84%
Manifold
84%
aiManifold21 traders
[
[ACX 2026] Will OpenAI file for an IPO during 2026?
37%
Manifold
37%
aiManifold52 traders
W
Will Claude Sonnet 5 exceed 85% on SWE-bench verified?
52%
Manifold
52%
aiManifold16 traders
O
OpenAI confirm work on a Generative Music tool by end of June 2026?
10%
Manifold
10%
aiManifold17 traders
W
Will OpenAI pause capabilities R&D voluntarily before 2027?
13%
Manifold
13%
aiManifold17 traders
W
Will we get AGI before 2038?
64%
Manifold
64%
aiManifold81 traders
I
Is the "Promethean virus" in Large Language Models real?
8%
Manifold
8%
aiManifold81 traders
G
Grok 5 (xAI) release date — Before August 2026
47%
Manifold
47%
aiManifold53 traders
F
Frontier LLM mobile apps can be backgrounded mid reasoning in November 2026?
92%
Manifold
92%
aiManifold19 traders
W
Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
17%
Manifold
17%
aiManifold17 traders
←23456→
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