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OddsRaven

Cross-platform prediction market consensus.

Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,934
Markets
Data refreshed 3 hr ago
357 questions
Consensus 2+
W
Will Cursor (Anysphere) and Claude (Anthropic) merge before the end of 2026?
11%
Manifold
11%
aiManifold17 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — <10%
6%
Manifold
6%
aiManifold17 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 10-20%
10%
Manifold
10%
aiManifold17 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 20-30%
16%
Manifold
16%
aiManifold17 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 30-40%
20%
Manifold
20%
aiManifold17 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 40-50%
17%
Manifold
17%
aiManifold17 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 50-60%
12%
Manifold
12%
aiManifold17 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 60-70%
7%
Manifold
7%
aiManifold17 traders
O
OpenAI and Anthropic will both hit their 2026 revenue goals in 2026
93%
Manifold
93%
aiManifold15 traders
W
will Anthropic have another leak in April 2026?
46%
Manifold
46%
aiManifold13 traders
B
By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason? — Jan 1, 2027
39%
Manifold
39%
aiManifold16 traders
B
By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason? — Jan 1, 2028
57%
Manifold
57%
aiManifold16 traders
B
By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason? — Jan 1, 2029
66%
Manifold
66%
aiManifold16 traders
W
When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? — June 2026 or earlier
5%
Manifold
5%
aiManifold16 traders
W
When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? — January 2027 or earlier
9%
Manifold
9%
aiManifold16 traders
W
When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? — June 2027 or earlier
30%
Manifold
30%
aiManifold16 traders
W
When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? — January 2028 or earlier
44%
Manifold
44%
aiManifold16 traders
W
When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? — June 2028 or earlier
56%
Manifold
56%
aiManifold16 traders
W
Will Claude Code support the .agents/skills/ standard before July?
60%
Manifold
60%
aiManifold16 traders
W
Will OpenAI Reach $100B in total profit by the end of 2027?
18%
Manifold
18%
aiManifold16 traders
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