W
Will the FDA issue formal guidance or recommendations regarding AI chatbot mental health risks by June 1, 2026?
52%
Context
52%
aiContext$2K
Taiwanese Premier Cho Jung-tai out by December 31, 2026?
37%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
37%
aiPolymarket$2K
Will any AI model reach 1570 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
71%
↑ 4ppPolymarket
71%
aiPolymarket$2K
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
92%
Polymarket
92%
aiPolymarket$2K
Will a Chinese company have the best AI model by December 31?
21%
↓ 2ppPolymarket
21%
aiPolymarket$1K
W
Will Anthropic's DoD lawsuit be dismissed by April 10?
79%
Context
79%
aiContext$1K
Will any AI model reach 1520 Overall Arena Score by September 30, 2026?
84%
Polymarket
84%
aiPolymarket$1K
ChatGPT Outage by April 17?
48%
↓ 8ppPolymarket
48%
aiPolymarket$1K
Will any AI model reach 1520 Math Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
92%
Polymarket
92%
aiPolymarket$1K
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by June 30, 2026?
84%
↑ 0ppPolymarket
84%
aiPolymarket$1K
Will any AI model reach 1525 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
90%
Polymarket
90%
aiPolymarket$1K
S
Superhuman mathematical problem solving before 2030, assuming no AGI yet?
19%
Manifold
19%
aiManifold100 traders
C
Conditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2100?
86%
Manifold
86%
aiManifold111 traders
G
GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date — Before 2028
94%
Manifold
94%
aiManifold119 traders
O
OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date — Before July 2026
31%
Manifold
31%
aiManifold20 traders
G
GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date — Before October 2027
89%
Manifold
89%
aiManifold119 traders
D
DeepSeek open-source frontier model after 3/23/26?
82%
Manifold
82%
aiManifold36 traders
G
GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date — Before July 2027
86%
Manifold
86%
aiManifold119 traders
G
GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date — Before June 2027
85%
Manifold
85%
aiManifold119 traders
C
Claude Mythos output cost ($/Mtok) — ≥$350/Mtok
8%
Manifold
8%
aiManifold28 traders