OddsRaven

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason? — Jan 1, 2027

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason? — Jan 1, 2028

By which date will the state-of-the-art LLM use latent space to reason? — Jan 1, 2029

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? — June 2026 or earlier

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? — January 2027 or earlier

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? — June 2027 or earlier

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? — January 2028 or earlier

When will a Claude model think faster than its Pokemon character can take steps? — June 2028 or earlier

Will there be any major breakthrough in LLM continual learning before 2030?

Will Claude Code support the .agents/skills/ standard before July?

Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?

Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?

Will an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?

Will OpenAI have significant financial troubles in 2026?

Will OpenAI still own the number 5.3 before May?

Public LLM exceeds superforecaster on Forecast bench by EOY 2026?

If DeepSeek releases V4 in 2026, will there be articles about it in NYT, WSJ, and WaPo within two weeks of release?

Will there be a global pause on the largest AI training runs at any point before AGI?

Will Anthropic still Exist as an Independent Company in 2030?

Will DeepSeek's next reasoning model be called R3?