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OddsRaven

Cross-platform prediction market consensus.

Academically validated. Updated every 6 hours.

980
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
68,934
Markets
Data refreshed 3 hr ago
357 questions
Consensus 2+
A
Are pigs sentient? [Resolves to superintelligence]
89%
Manifold
89%
aiManifold16 traders
W
Will Alphabet divest from Anthropic by EOY?
16%
Manifold
16%
aiManifold20 traders
C
Claude Mythos output cost ($/Mtok) — ≥ $15/Mtok
95%
Manifold
95%
aiManifold28 traders
C
Claude Mythos output cost ($/Mtok) — ≥$25/Mtok
95%
Manifold
95%
aiManifold28 traders
C
Claude Mythos output cost ($/Mtok) — ≥$50/Mtok
87%
Manifold
87%
aiManifold28 traders
B
By 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on AGI by 2050?
48%
Manifold
48%
aiManifold35 traders
W
Will we see an open source LLM model better than Opus 4.5 before the end of 2026?
85%
Manifold
85%
aiManifold14 traders
W
Will xAI release Grok 5 before May 1st 2026?
12%
Manifold
12%
aiManifold30 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 70-80%
6%
Manifold
6%
aiManifold17 traders
W
Will Apple power Siri using an AI thats the IP of Anthropic before 2026?
7%
Manifold
7%
aiManifold32 traders
W
Will OpenAI go bankrupt following a major AI market crash before 2030?
17%
Manifold
17%
aiManifold12 traders
W
Will there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
22%
Manifold
22%
aiManifold14 traders
W
Will an AGI be trained on cheap, accessible hardware before 2040?
55%
Manifold
55%
aiManifold15 traders
W
Will OpenAI have significant financial troubles in 2026?
31%
Manifold
31%
aiManifold15 traders
W
Will OpenAI release a super-app combining ChatGPT, Codex, and Atlass apps, before May 1 2026?
19%
Manifold
19%
aiManifold21 traders
W
Will OpenAI still own the number 5.3 before May?
93%
Manifold
93%
aiManifold15 traders
A
AI model achieves superhuman ELO on Codeforces by June 1st 2027?
71%
Manifold
71%
aiManifold30 traders
I
If DeepSeek releases V4 in 2026, will there be articles about it in NYT, WSJ, and WaPo within two weeks of release?
72%
Manifold
72%
aiManifold14 traders
W
Will OpenAI IPO and be a publicly traded company in the United States by the end of Halloween 2026?
12%
Manifold
12%
aiManifold19 traders
G
GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date — Before October 2026
48%
Manifold
48%
aiManifold119 traders
←45678→
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