C
Claude Mythos output cost ($/Mtok) — ≥$50/Mtok
87%
Manifold
87%
aiManifold28 traders
B
By 2050, will there be a cure to aging conditional on AGI by 2050?
48%
Manifold
48%
aiManifold35 traders
W
Will xAI release Grok 5 before May 1st 2026?
12%
Manifold
12%
aiManifold30 traders
W
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026? — 70-80%
6%
Manifold
6%
aiManifold17 traders
W
Will Apple power Siri using an AI thats the IP of Anthropic before 2026?
7%
Manifold
7%
aiManifold32 traders
Will any emoji be printed on a Magic: the Gathering card by... — End of 2025
1%
Manifold
1%
aiManifold19 traders
W
When will OpenAI's first consumer hardware device be released? (Jony Ive Sam Altman IO) 🤖📱👀 — Before December 31st 2025
1%
Manifold
1%
aiManifold19 traders
G
GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date — Before October 2026
48%
Manifold
48%
aiManifold119 traders
G
GPT 6 (OpenAI) release date — Before November 2026
58%
Manifold
58%
aiManifold119 traders
W
Will we get AGI before 2036?
58%
Manifold
58%
aiManifold104 traders
W
Will we get AGI before 2039?
67%
Manifold
67%
aiManifold73 traders
W
Will Elon Musk's AI Company (xAI) exceed OpenAI in valuation anytime before 2035?
25%
Manifold
25%
aiManifold71 traders
W
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium
Prize Problem before 2035?
52%
Manifold
52%
aiManifold102 traders
W
Will tweaking current Large Language Models (LLMs) lead us to achieving Artificial General Intelligence (AGI)?
19%
Manifold
19%
aiManifold28 traders
W
When will OpenAI's first consumer hardware device be released? (Jony Ive Sam Altman IO) 🤖📱👀 — Before July 2027
66%
Manifold
66%
aiManifold19 traders
W
Will we get AGI before a human walks on the Moon again?
33%
Manifold
33%
aiManifold84 traders
A
Anthropic 2025 Revenue — >$5 billion
48%
Manifold
48%
aiManifold18 traders
W
Will OpenAI shares pay a dividend before AGI or by 2031?
13%
Manifold
13%
aiManifold25 traders
W
Will OpenAI release a competitor to GitHub in 2026?
29%
Manifold
29%
aiManifold18 traders
W
Will Cursor (Anysphere) and Claude (Anthropic) merge before the end of 2026?
13%
Manifold
13%
aiManifold18 traders