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Cross-platform prediction market consensus. Academically validated.

979
Consensus Questions
6
Platforms
77,545
Markets
Data refreshed 3 hr ago
77 questions
Consensus 2+
W
Will Timothee Chalamet win an Oscar before the 5th Bitcoin halving?
37%
Manifold
37%
cryptoManifold16 traders
W
Will Bitcoin be $100k or higher on the day GTA6 releases?
25%
Manifold
25%
cryptoManifold13 traders
W
Will Vitalik Buterin or the Ethereum Foundation be charged by the SEC with selling unregistered securities by the end of 2030?
20%
Manifold
20%
cryptoManifold15 traders
W
Will Taylor Swift get married before Bitcoin reaches $150K USD?
96%
Manifold
96%
cryptoManifold14 traders
W
When Will Bitcoin cross $100,000 again? — Before May 31 11.59pm est 2026
7%
Manifold
7%
cryptoManifold13 traders
W
When Will Bitcoin cross $100,000 again? — Before September 30 11.59pm est 2026
27%
Manifold
27%
cryptoManifold13 traders
W
Will Bitcoin hit $60k(Yes) or $80k(No) first?
38%
Manifold
38%
cryptoManifold14 traders
B
Bitcoin $55K before $85K?
33%
Manifold
33%
cryptoManifold13 traders
B
Bitcoin below $25K in 2026?
4%
Manifold
4%
cryptoManifold14 traders
W
Will I ever make a real world purchase with a crypto currency?
55%
Manifold
55%
cryptoManifold14 traders
W
Will blockchain technology be used for storing at least 10% of global GDP by 2027?
26%
Manifold
26%
cryptoManifold14 traders
A
At the end of Juneteenth 2026 (June 19) will Manifold have sold enough Mana in the last 30 days to buy one bitcoin?
5%
Manifold
5%
cryptoManifold14 traders
W
Will the four year bitcoin cycle continue?
58%
Manifold
58%
cryptoManifold12 traders
W
Will Bitcoin go below $30,000 before reaching a new all time high?
26%
Manifold
26%
cryptoManifold12 traders
B
BTC hits $10k before SPY reaches $700?
4%
Manifold
4%
cryptoManifold12 traders
B
Bitcoin price will be above $5000 on Jan 30, 2034
85%
Manifold
85%
cryptoManifold11 traders
W
Will bitcoin achieve a new ath in 2026
17%
Manifold
17%
cryptoManifold11 traders
←234
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