W
Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 15% as measured from a prior peak?
43%
Manifold
43%
economicsManifold16 traders
W
Will US unemployment be 10% or more before 2030?
26%
Manifold
26%
economicsManifold24 traders
W
Will the Milky Way still exist in 2030? [long-term interest rate market]
98%
Manifold
98%
economicsManifold68 traders
W
Will tariff refunds be given out to a majority who paid them?
42%
Manifold
42%
economicsManifold25 traders
B
By 2028, will there be a visible break in trend line on US GDP, GDP per capita, unemployment, or productivity, which most economists attribute directly to the effects of AI?
46%
Manifold
46%
economicsManifold597 traders
W
Will the US experience a recession during 2026?
42%
Manifold
42%
economicsManifold47 traders
W
Will the US experience a recession during 2027?
19%
Manifold
19%
economicsManifold11 traders
W
What's the risk-free interest rate until 2028 on Manifold Markets?
1%
Manifold
1%
economicsManifold25 traders
U
Unemployment rate for new college grads increases in 2026?
70%
Manifold
70%
economicsManifold25 traders
W
Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?
30%
Manifold
30%
economicsManifold18 traders
W
Will Taiwan surpass the USA in GDP (PPP) per capita before 2035 if it isn't invaded by China?
80%
Manifold
80%
economicsManifold31 traders
W
World gdp growth from 2023 to 2100? (nominal USD, annualized, 10x amplified) (M10,000 subsidy)
64%
Manifold
64%
economicsManifold31 traders
W
Will the World's GDP double in 10 years?
44%
Manifold
44%
economicsManifold34 traders
W
Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?
31%
Manifold
31%
economicsManifold17 traders
W
Will there be at least one year before 2040 in which real US GDP grows by at least 10% as measured from a prior peak?
53%
Manifold
53%
economicsManifold19 traders
[
[ACX 2026] Will the United States experience negative GDP growth during Q1, Q2, or Q3 2026?
24%
Manifold
24%
economicsManifold17 traders
W
Will US unemployment get above 6% in 2026?
23%
Manifold
23%
economicsManifold12 traders
T
This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question)
1%
Manifold
1%
economicsManifold48 traders
U
US government shutdown on October 1st 2026?
48%
Manifold
48%
economicsManifold17 traders
ECB rate hike in 2026?
86%
Manifold
86%
economicsManifold11 traders